AI Tip Checker and Record Auditor
Two questions, one page: is this tip a bet at that price, and does the claimed record mean anything yet? Both answers are arithmetic on the numbers you type in.
Enter the probability a model, a tipster or a chatbot gave you, and the price on offer. Add the market’s other outcomes and the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out before the edge is judged.
The prices of the market’s other outcomes. Enter them and we remove the overround and compare against the margin-free price as well.
Enter a probability (or fair odds) and the bookmaker price to see the numbers.
The numbers are arithmetic on the values you enter — no prediction, no promise and no guarantee. Gambling carries a negative expected value over time and is never an income. 18+. Gambling Therapy offers free, confidential support worldwide.
Why most AI tips are not bets
A model does not have to pick winners — it has to price them better than the book once the margin is taken out. That is the whole difference between a tip that sounds accurate and a tip worth backing. This checker makes that comparison with the numbers you already have: the probability you were given, the price on offer and, if you enter the rest of the market, the bookmaker’s margin.
Compare the current prices across bookmakers
How a single tip is checked
Every price maps to an implied probability: 1 divided by the decimal odds. That is the break-even hit rate — land under it and you lose money over time, however confident the tip sounded. Your edge is the gap between the model’s probability and that figure, and the expected return per 100 staked follows straight out of the same arithmetic.
Break-even hit rate = 1 / odds · Edge = probability − break-even · EV per 100 = (probability × odds − 1) × 100
The price you are shown is not the market’s honest opinion, though — it carries the bookmaker’s margin. Enter the market’s other outcomes and every implied probability is normalised to exactly 100 %, which gives the margin-free price. A model that beats the consensus but not the offered price is inside the margin: it points the right way, just not far enough to be worth paying the overround for. The margin is measured here as the overround, the sum of 1/odds minus 1 — the same definition the margin calculator uses.
How a claimed record is audited
At flat stakes the result is wins × (odds − 1) − losses, and ROI is that result divided by the number of bets. The more important question is whether the figure means anything: under the null hypothesis of no edge, wins are binomially distributed around bets / odds, with a standard deviation that grows with the square root of the number of bets. Anything inside ±2σ is what luck alone produces. That is why a 20-pick run is entirely ordinary — and why a claimed 5-point edge at 1.90 needs close to 400 settled bets before it separates from noise.
Expected wins = bets / odds · σ = √(bets × p₀ × (1 − p₀)) · Bets needed ≈ 4 × p₀ × (1 − p₀) / edge²
Worked example
A model says 55 % on an outcome the bookmaker prices at 2.00, with the other outcome at 1.82. The break-even hit rate is 50 %, the margin on that market is 4.9 % and the margin-free price is 2.10.
The edge over the offered price is 5.0 points and over the margin-free price 7.4 points, which is an expected return of 10 per 100 staked if the probability is right. Swap 55 for 48 and the picture flips: the number beats the consensus but not the price, and the tip sits inside the margin.
FAQ
Can an AI tool predict matches better than the bookmakers?
Bookmaker prices are, in practice, the market’s aggregate view adjusted for risk and money flow. A model can be right more often than chance and still lose money, because it has to beat the price after the margin — not merely name the winner. This tool shows exactly where that line sits for the price in front of you.
How many bets does a record need before it means anything?
Far more than almost anyone assumes. At 1.90 a claimed 5-point edge needs around 400 settled bets before it falls outside two standard deviations of ordinary noise, and a 2.5-point edge needs four times as many. A shorter run says nothing either way.
Can AI find patterns in slots or roulette?
No. RNG outcomes are independent of one another, and RTP and house edge are fixed properties of the game. There is no sequence to learn, so no model — AI or otherwise — can improve the expected result. This tool applies only to prices on sports markets.
